Posts Tagged ‘Greg Mankiw’

French lessons for the US

Sunday, October 23rd, 2011

Harvard economist Greg Mankiw uses the recent economic histories of four countries – Zimbabwe, Japan, Greece and France – to illustrates policy mistakes “that could, if we are not careful, presage the future of the United States economy”.

The four cases are different, and not equally relevant. I (and Mankiw) would argue that Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation has little or no relevance for the United States at this time. Of the other three cases, I would emphasise Japan’s deflation and prolonged economic slump. Mankiw emphasises France, not for its policy mistakes, but rather as an illustration of the tradeoff between income and leisure.

Here are two facts about the French economy. First, gross domestic product per capita in France is 29 percent less than it is in the United States, in large part because the French work many fewer hours over their lifetimes than Americans do. Second, the French are taxed more than Americans. In 2009, taxes were 24 percent of G.D.P. in the United States but 42 percent in France.

Economists debate whether higher taxation in France and other European nations is the cause of the reduced work effort and incomes there. Perhaps it is something else entirely — a certain joie de vivre that escapes the nose-to-the-grindstone American culture.

We may soon be running a natural experiment to find out. If American policy makers don’t rein in entitlement spending over the next several decades, they will have little choice but to raise taxes close to European levels. We can then see whether the next generation of Americans spends less time at work earning a living and more time sipping espresso in outdoor cafes.

N. Gregory Mankiw, “Economic View: Four Nations, Four Lessons“, New York Times, 23 October 2011.

Greg Mankiw is advising Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, in his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.

means tests as stealth taxes

Sunday, June 19th, 2011

Harvard economist Greg Mankiw has a wonderful column that illustrates a favourite truism of mine: means tests are equivalent to taxes on the relatively well-off. They are ‘stealth taxes’ because they are hidden.

Democrats want to increase taxes on the rich to fund the looming fiscal gap, which is driven largely by soaring health costs. Republicans object, saying higher taxes create economic distortions, discourage work and impede growth. Last month, John A. Boehner, the House speaker, said that we should instead consider means-testing Medicare. But what does that mean?

Here is how means-testing might work. We could start by choosing some income threshold — say, $250,000 — and then require people over 65 with higher annual income to pay more in Medicare premiums than they do now. For example, for every $1,000 of income beyond the threshold, they might have to pay an extra $10 in annual premiums.

Sounds good, right? But notice that the economic effects of means-testing are much the same as a tax increase. This particular plan is like increasing the income tax rate by one percentage point for high-income seniors. It is only semantics as to whether the $10 is called a “tax” or a “premium.”

Professor Mankiw also looks at Obama’s insurance mandate, which imposes a fine on anyone who refuses to purchase health insurance. Republicans oppose this mandate, but are not clear about how they would proceed to achieve expanded health care coverage. Senator John McCain – Obama’s opponent in the 2008 presidential campaign – prefers carrots to sticks: a tax credit for purchase of insurance rather than penalties for not buying it. But who would pay for the tax credit?

The answer is all taxpayers. This tax burden would be particularly hard on the uninsured, who would face higher taxes without enjoying the credit’s benefit. In other words, giving a tax credit to those who buy insurance is a back-door way to impose fines on those who don’t.

N. Gregory Mankiw, “Economic View: Seriously, Some Consensus About Health Care“, New York Times, 19 June 2011.

Carrying Mankiw’s logic a bit further, who pays for the tax breaks given to (1) workers with employer-provided health insurance and (2) those contributing to government-approved retirement savings plans? The answer is all taxpayers. Taxpayers who do not have employer-provided health insurance or do not have approved retirement savings come out on the short end of the stick. Inevitably, these are among the poorest and least-advantaged of taxpayers.

Greg Mankiw (born 1958) chaired President George W Bush’s Council of Economic Advisors from 2003 to 2005. He is advising Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, in his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.

Mankiw’s challenge

Sunday, May 8th, 2011

Harvard economist Greg Mankiw, author of a leading economic principles text, acknowledges that there exist at least three questions on the current US economy that he is unable to answer.

I have a confession to make: There is a lot I don’t know about the economy. …. So let me come clean and highlight three questions that perplex me. ….

[1] How long will it take for the economy’s wounds to heal?

…. A striking feature of today’s labor market is the rise of long-term joblessness. The average duration of unemployment is now almost 40 weeks, about twice what it reached in previous recessions. The long-term unemployed may well lose job skills ….

[2] How long will inflation expectations remain anchored?

…. Inflation expectations are “well anchored,” we are told, so there is no continuing problem with inflation. Rising gasoline prices are just a transitory blip. They are probably right, but there is still reason to wonder. ….

[3] How long will the bond market trust the United States?

A remarkable feature of current financial markets is their willingness to lend to the federal government on favorable terms, despite a huge budget deficit, a fiscal trajectory that everyone knows is unsustainable and the failure of our political leaders to reach a consensus on how to change course. This can’t go on forever — that much is clear.

N. Gregory Mankiw, “Economic View: If You Have the Answers, Tell Me“, New York Times, 8 May 2011.

I was thinking of taking up Mankiw’s challenge, but economist Dean Baker beat me to it. I like Baker’s answers, and have nothing to add to them.

Let’s start with questions 2 and 3, because these are easier.

The answer to question number 2 seems obvious — as long as there is no inflation. Why should people expect inflation when they are not seeing any. There is no evidence of generalized cost pressure in the economy as all indexes of wages are showing the rate of wage growth remaining pretty much constant. ….

The answer to question 3 largely follows the answer to question 2. After all, the real threat to those holding U.S. government bonds is inflation, not insolvency …. The United States can always print more dollars to meet its obligations. Greece cannot do the same with euros. ….

Okay, on to question #1. This is obviously a trick question, since it depends on what policies the country pursues. If the deficit hawks get full control over the levers of government and we start cutting spending rapidly, then it will take many many years before the economy recovers.

Similarly, if inflation hawks at the Fed can force increases in interest rates, like their counterparts at the European Central Bank, then recovery can take a very long time.

On the other hand, if we could get another big jolt of stimulus, a more aggressive monetary policy, or a big fall in the dollar to boost net exports, then we could see the economy recover fairly quickly.

Dean Baker, “Gregory Mankiw’s Pop Quiz on the Economy“, Beat the Press, 7 May 2011.

Greg Mankiw (born 1958) chaired President GW Bush’s Council of Economic Advisors from 2003 to 2005. Dean Baker (also born 1958) is co-founder of the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research.

WTF

Sunday, February 13th, 2011

In his State of the Union address last month, President Obama set the stage for a coming policy debate and his re-election bid with a catch phrase. Six times, he called on Americans to “win the future.” ….

No doubt, the phrase appealed to White House political advisers and speechwriters. It is always better for presidents to focus on our future potential than the immutable past. And who doesn’t want to win? ….

Yet this catch phrase is also problematic. For one thing, “Winning the Future” was the title of a 2005 book by Newt Gingrich. …. And then there is that pesky abbreviated form of the phrase — WTF — that does not exactly inspire confidence.

More troublesome to me as an economist, though, is that calling on Americans to “win the future” misleads us about the nature of the policy choices ahead. Achieving economic prosperity is not like winning a game, and guiding an economy is not like managing a sports team.

N. Gregory Mankiw, “Economic View: Emerging Markets as Partners, Not Rivals“, New York Times, 13 February 2011.

Harvard economist Greg Mankiw goes on to explain the principle of comparative advantage and why trade is not a competitive game, with winners and losers. Everyone gains from free trade. This is an excellent column, but Princeton economist Paul Krugman long ago conveyed the same message with even better prose. Here is an abstract of Krugman’s paper.

The view that nations compete against each other like big corporations has become pervasive among Western elites, many of whom are in the Clinton administration. As a practical matter, however, the doctrine of “competitiveness” is flatly wrong. The world’s leading nations are not, to any important degree, in economic competition with each other. Nor can their major economic woes be attributed to “losing” on world markets. This is particularly true in the case of the United States. Yet Clinton’s theorists of competitiveness, from Laura D. Andrea Tyson to Robert Reich to Ira Magaziner, make seemingly sophisticated arguments, most of which are supported by careless arithmetic and sloppy research. Competitiveness is a seductive idea, promising easy answers to complex problems. But the result of this obsession is misallocated resources, trade frictions and bad domestic economic policies.

Paul Krugman, “Competitiveness: A Dangerous Obsession“, Foreign Affairs, March/April 1994.

Click on the link for the full paper. According to Google Scholar, this article has been cited 1271 times. Read (or re-read) it and be impressed. Paul Krugman is a gifted writer who breathes life into standard economics.

In praising Krugman, I do not wish to slight Mankiw. To compare of a 900-word column with a 17-page article is unfair. Ample space is needed to explain economic concepts in plain English, without jargon. That is why I enjoyed so much the articles Krugman used to write for the online magazine Slate. The short columns he now writes for the New York Times sometimes disappoint me. In Slate, Krugman was able to focus on economics. In the New York Times he often focuses on politics.

Krugman’s Slate writings are still available. One of the best is “In Praise of Cheap Labor” (21 March 1997). For more of Krugman’s Slate articles, go to this link.

fiscal austerity in the USA

Saturday, December 4th, 2010

The sick and the unemployed are suffering in the poorly-performing US economy.

In the news today:

Tuesday marked the expiration of a pair of federal programs that had extended unemployment benefits anywhere from 34 to 73 weeks on top of the 26 weeks already provided by the states. ….

Some recipients have already received their final checks. If the impasse remains unresolved, others will see their payments lapse in the coming days or weeks, depending on how long they have been receiving benefits.

By the end of December, more than two million are set to lose their extended benefits, according to estimates by the National Employment Law Project, and about a million more by the end of January.

Michael Luo, “Millions Bracing for Cutoff of Unemployment Aid”, New York Times, 4 December 2010.

and tomorrow:

With enrollments exploding, revenues shrinking and the low-hanging fruit plucked long ago, virtually every state has had to make painful cuts to its Medicaid program during the economic downturn.

What distinguishes the reductions recently imposed in Arizona, where coverage was eliminated on Oct. 1 for certain transplants of the heart, liver, lung, pancreas and bone marrow, is the decision to stop paying for treatments urgently needed to ward off death.

The cuts in transplant coverage, which could deny organs to 100 adults currently on the transplant list, are testament to both the severity of fiscal pressures on the states and the particular bloodlessness of budget-cutting in Arizona.

Kevin Sack, “Arizona Medicaid Cuts Seen as a Sign of the Times”, New York Times, 5 December 2010.

Cuts in transplant coverage are outrageous. Even Republicans, who are worried about government “death panels”, would agree. As for extension of unemployment benefits, most economists favour this, not only because of humanitarian concern, but also because it provides a much-needed stimulus of demand. Harvard economist Greg Mankiw, however, is not sure about the worth of extending unemployment benefits in a prolonged recession.

A few readers have asked me to opine on the current debate over the extension of unemployment insurance benefits.  I have avoided commenting on the topic because I am ambivalent on the issue, largely because I am agnostic about what economists know about optimal UI. ….

[E]conomists who strongly favor the extension of UI benefits … also tend to favor more income redistribution in general. I suspect, therefore, that the foundation of their support comes not from having weighed the specific pros and cons of UI per se, but rather from a more general desire to “spread the wealth around.” That issue is, as I tell my students, more a matter of political philosophy than it is of economics.

Greg Mankiw, “My Agnosticism about UI”, Greg Mankiw’s Blog, 4 December 2010.

taxes on the wealthy

Sunday, October 10th, 2010

Harvard economist Greg Mankiw, in an op-ed column, cautions that a tax on income of the wealthy will reduce their incentive to work. But he omits something very important.

An important issue dividing the political parties is whether to raise taxes on those earning more than $250,000 a year. ….

So I thought it might be useful to do a case study on one of these high-income taxpayers. Fortunately, I have one handy: me. ….

I acknowledge that my motives in taking on extra work are partly mercenary. I don’t want to move to a bigger house or buy that Ferrari, but I hope to put some money aside for my three children. ….

Now you might not care if I supply less of my services to the marketplace — although, because you are eading this article, you are one of my customers.

N. Gregory Mankiw, “Economic View: I Can Afford Higher Taxes. But They’ll Make Me Work Less”, New York Times, 10 October 2010.

Actually, the issue is not whether to increase taxes on the wealthy – the tax cuts of GW Bush, after all, were temporary and are due to expire very soon. The issue, rather, is whether to cut once again marginal tax rates on incomes of the wealthy. What Professor Mankiw fails to mention – although it is implicit in his column – is that the wealthy tend to be satiated with goods and services, so are likely to save nearly all of their tax cuts. If economic stimulus is the objective, isn’t it better to give tax cuts to those who are not so wealthy, and are more likely to spend any additional income?

One more point: Does the New York Times pay Professor Mankiw for the op-ed columns that he writes? If the pay is zero, or very low, how would tax laws affect his supply of this service to readers?

Update: Greg Mankiw has responded to critics. But he doesn’t address either of my two points.

‘sin’ taxes

Sunday, June 6th, 2010

Harvard economist Greg Mankiw explores the pros and cons of paternalistic governance.

Taxing soda may encourage better nutrition and benefit our future selves. But so could taxing candy, ice cream and fried foods. Subsidizing broccoli, gym memberships and dental floss comes next. Taxing mindless television shows and subsidizing serious literature cannot be far behind.

Even as adults, we sometimes wish for parents to be looking over our shoulders and guiding us to the right decisions. The question is, do you trust the government enough to appoint it your guardian?

N. Gregory Mankiw, “Economic View: Can a Soda Tax Save Us From Ourselves?”, New York Times, 6 June 2010.

why The Economist is no longer worth reading

Friday, May 7th, 2010

It is a pity that The Economist, which used to be a sensible – indeed, excellent – newspaper, has fallen to such depths that I rarely read it. Here is a recent example, penned by “Buttonwood”:

It is a standard conservative argument that taxes on companies end up being taxes on everyone, since they will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. But of course, it works the other way round; cuts in benefits for the poor, on in public sector payrolls, lead to lower demand for the goods and services that companies produce.

Buttonwood, “Democratic deficit”, Buttonwood’s notebook, 5 May 2010.

The writer is author of The Economist‘s column on financial markets.

Buttonwood’s analysis is flawed and incomplete. Everyone – producers and consumers alike – benefits from the stimulus of tax cuts and government spending only in times of recession and high unemployment. In normal times the standard argument applies, although it is somewhat more complex than assumed by Buttonwood. A full explanation can be found in any basic textbook, such as Greg Mankiw’s popular Principles of Economics:

Who Pays the Corporate Income Tax?

The corporate income tax provides a good example of the importance of tax incidence for tax policy. The corporate tax is popular among voters. After all, corporations are not people. Voters are always eager to have their taxes reduced and have some impersonal corporation pick up the tab.

But before deciding that the corporate income tax is a good way for the government to raise revenue, we should consider who bears the burden of the corporate tax. This is a difficult question on which economists disagree, but one thing is certain: People pay all taxes. When the government levies a tax on a corporation, the corporation is more like a tax collector than a taxpayer. The burden of the tax ultimately falls on people—the owners, customers, or workers of the corporation.

Many economists believe that workers and customers bear much of the burden of the corporate income tax. To see why, consider an example. Suppose that the U.S. government decides to raise the tax on the income earned by car companies. At first, this tax hurts the owners of the car companies, who receive less profit. But over time, these owners will respond to the tax. Because producing cars is less profitable, they invest less in building new car factories. Instead, they invest their wealth in other ways—for example, by buying larger houses or by building factories in other industries or other countries. With fewer car factories, the supply of cars declines, as does the demand for autoworkers. Thus, a tax on corporations making cars causes the price of cars to rise and the wages of autoworkers to fall.

The corporate income tax shows how dangerous the flypaper theory of tax incidence can be. The corporate income tax is popular in part because it appears to be paid by rich corporations. Yet those who bear the ultimate burden of the tax—the customers and workers of corporations—are often not rich. If the true incidence of the corporate tax were more widely known, this tax might be less popular among voters.

“Corporate Tax Rates”, Greg Mankiw’s blog, 3 May 2006.

Mankiw is conservative, so readers might infer that this is a conservative argument. I don’t think so. If my memory is correct, a similar statement can be found in any principles text. I am travelling, so do not have easy access to textbooks, but if anyone doubts this, check out, for example, a text authored by two economists – Paul Krugman and Robin Wells – who are definitely not conservative. Chapter 7 of their book, Economics, is titled “Taxes”, so might be a good place to search. If you find any passage that differs from Mankiw’s statement, please let me know: comments are open!

Greg Mankiw on “spreading the wealth around”

Saturday, February 27th, 2010

Harvard economist Greg Mankiw has written a new paper, one inspired by candidate Barack Obama’s response to a question posed by “Joe the Plumber” during the presidential campaign of 2008. Joe asked then-Senator Obama about his proposal to raise taxes on high-income households by letting GW Bush’s tax-cuts expire. The candidate responded, in part, “It’s not that I want to punish your success. I just want to make sure that everybody who is behind you, that they’ve got a chance at success, too…. I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.”

I don’t think it is an exaggeration to say that the single most important difference between the political left and the political right is over the questions of whether, and to what extent, “spreading the wealth around” is a proper function of government.

Looking ahead, I fully expect the issue to remain at the center of political debate. One reason is that the tax cuts signed into law by President Bush in 2001 and 2003 will expire next year unless Congress takes action to extend them.

Another, perhaps more important, reason is that the U.S. federal government is running a large budget deficit and faces an ominous fiscal gap looming on the horizon. As the baby boom generation retires and starts claiming Social Security and Medicare, government spending will slowly and steadily continue to rise as a share of the economy. It is possible that Congress will suddenly read Milton Friedman’s book Capitalism and Freedom, become committed classical liberals (in the 19th century use the term), and decide to scale back the size and scope of government. But, more likely, Congress will find past entitlement promises hard to break, and so it will have little choice but to raise taxes to levels unprecedented in U.S. history.

Which naturally raises the question: Whose taxes should go up?

N. Gregory Mankiw, “Spreading the Wealth Around: Reflections Inspired by Joe the Plumber”, February 2010.

Professor Mankiw, who chaired GW Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, shares his former boss’s view that wealthy citizens ought to be taxed lightly. This follows from what Mankiw calls the “Just Deserts Theory” of optimal taxation:

Under a standard set of assumptions, a competitive economy leads to an efficient allocation of resources. But we economists often say that there is nothing particular equitable about that equilibrium. Perhaps we are too hasty in reaching that judgment. After all, it is also a standard result that in a competitive equilibrium, the factors of production are paid the value of their marginal product. That is, each person’s income reflects the value of what he contributed to society’s production of goods and services. One might easily conclude that, under these idealized conditions, each person receives his just deserts.

N. Gregory Mankiw, “Spreading the Wealth Around”.

This a good paper and, as one might expect from the author of a best-selling economics text, very didactic. But it gives a false impression of 19th-century liberals. Mankiw implies that classical liberals opposed taxing the wealthy for the purpose of aiding those less fortunate. This is not true. Adam Smith, who famously wrote “Great nations are never impoverished by private, though they sometimes are by public prodigality and misconduct.”, has impeccable liberal credentials. Yet he supported progressive taxation and redistribution of income, as the following quotes show:

No society can surely be flourishing and happy, of which the far greater part of the members are poor and miserable. It is but equity, besides, that they who feed, cloath and lodge the whole body of the people, should have such a share of the produce of their own labour as to be themselves tolerably well fed, cloathed and lodged.

Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations (1776), Book I, Chapter 8, paragraph 35.

It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expence, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.

Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations (1776), Book V, Chapter 2, paragraph 71.

In all fairness, I should point out that Mankiw does allocate space to the concerns of Adam Smith:

As long as people care about others to some degree, then antipoverty programs are a type of public good. That is, under this view, the government provides for the poor not simply because their marginal utility is high but because we have interdependent utility functions. Put differently, we would all like to alleviate poverty. But because we would prefer to have someone else pick up the tab, private charity can’t do the job. Government-run antipoverty programs solve the free-rider problem among the altruistic well-to-do.

N. Gregory Mankiw, “Spreading the Wealth Around”.

But Mankiw does not atribute this to Adam Smith, nor does he develop the line of thought fully. My concern is that a casual reader might miss this nuance, focus on the disproportionate space allocated to “Just Deserts Theory”, and fail to question, for example, whether large bonuses are “just deserts” for managers whose failing firms have been bailed out by taxpayers.

Bottom line: this excellent paper is worth reading, but beware of political bias.

taxing the deceased

Sunday, January 3rd, 2010

In the USA, thanks to GW Bush, the federal government no longer levies taxes on the estates of deceased citizens. Wealthy citizens who die in the years to come, beginning in 2011, will again face post-mortem taxes, with marginal rates as high as 55%.

Princeton economist Paul Krugman supports reinstatement of estate taxes.  Harvard economist Greg Mankiw favours their permanent repeal, for two reasons:

[First, although] the tax is levied only on the largest 2 percent of estates … [, it is not true] that the burden of the tax falls only on the richest 2 percent of Americans. …. As a first approximation, it would make more sense to distribute the burden of the tax to the estate’s beneficiaries rather than to the decedent.

What would happen if we allocated the estate tax burden to heirs rather than decedents? At first blush, one might think that it would not make much difference. After all, are not the children of rich people rich?

It turns out that the answer is “not always.” ….

[Second,] the estate tax unfairly punishes frugality, undermines economic growth, reduces real wages, and raises little, if any, federal revenue. There are no principles of good tax policy that support this tax, and I support the President’s call for its permanent repeal.

N. Gregory Mankiw, “Remarks at the National Bureau of Economic Research Tax Policy and the Economy Meeting”, National Press Club, 4 November 2003.

Professor Mankiw was Chairman of GW Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers at the time he made this statement.

For what it’s worth, I side with Krugman in this debate. Mankiw makes a valiant effort to support the estate tax, but I find his arguments flawed. In the case of tax incidence, Mankiw ignores the fact that the first million dollars of an estate are exempt from tax. If the heirs are not rich before receiving such an inheritance, they most certainly are after the fact. And, if Mankiw feels that a million dollars spread among children, grandchildren, nieces and nephews might leave some of them in poverty, then he ought to call for a larger exempt amount, or for an exempt amount for each beneficiary, not for repeal of the entire tax.

As for the effect of the estate tax on saving (NOT on investment, which is a separate issue), this is an argument for replacement of the income tax with a consumption tax – NOT for repeal of the estate tax. I, for one, favour exempting ALL saving from taxes, along with repeal of the estate tax, with one proviso: the accumulated savings (wealth) of an individual ought to be deemed ‘consumption’ upon death, and taxed accordingly. Alternatively, estates of the deceased could be taxed as income in the hands of beneficiaries. Professor Mankiw, alas, calls for abolishment of the estate tax but does not condition this on further tax reform.

Addendum: As a ‘small l’ liberal and follower of John Stuart Mill, I of course support the estate tax. Mill recommended in 1848 that government limit “the sum which any one person may acquire by gift or inheritance, to the amount sufficient to constitute a moderate independence”. For large estates, this implies a marginal tax of 100%!

Those concerned with high rates of taxation of wealthy dead individuals should – I believe – show at least equal concern with the even higher rates of taxation of incomes of the working poor. But they rarely do, with the notable exception of Greg Mankiw. Remember, marginal rates of taxation of low incomes often exceed 100%!