Archive for the ‘History’ Category

“catastrophic austerity” in Greece and in Weimar Germany

Wednesday, February 8th, 2012

The Financial Times has published an interchange of letters responding to a single sentence that Martin Wolf included in his column last week. The sentence, referring to German insistence on fiscal discipline in vulnerable eurozone countries, is the following.

This attempt to vindicate the catastrophic austerity of Heinrich Brüning, German chancellor in 1930-1932, is horrifying.

Martin Wolf, “Europe is stuck on life support“, Financial Times, 1 February 2012.

The first letter writer supports Martin’s view that austerity and deflation was the proximate cause of the fall of the Weimar Republic.

Monetarist fetishists have helped to circulate a pernicious falsehood that the Weimar über-inflation caused the rise of Hitler. The wild inflation storm occurred in 1924. The Weimar economy recovered from it. The Nazis came to power only in 1933, as an immediate consequence of the deflationary spiral that resulted from what Mr Wolf refers to aptly as the “catastrophic austerity” introduced by Brüning.

Greece is now suffering from policies of similarly “catastrophic austerity”.

Anthony Murray, “Catastrophic austerity not über inflation gave us Hitler“, Financial Times, 6 February 2012.

The second letter writer asserts that the hyperinflation of 1924 was more important than the deflation of 1930-32 in ushering the Nazis into power in 1933.

No matter whether austerity today is catastrophic or not, to call Heinrich Brüning’s policies “the real reason for Germany’s descent into Nazism” (Letters, February 6) is a gross exaggeration. Although Brüning’s measures were disastrous, they were not very different from what other countries pursued during the Depression, mostly without turning into dictatorships. Germany’s descent began much earlier. ….

While we cannot draw a straight line from hyperinflation to the Machtergreifung by the Nazis, it is evident that the Weimar Republic never gained the broad-based democratic legitimacy needed to survive the Depression intact. Hyperinflation played an important part in that by destroying the faith of the middle class in the new regime.

Mark S. Manger, “Genesis of Nazism predates Brüning“, Financial Times, 8 February 2012.

No doubt both hyperinflation and austerity played a role. I have limited knowledge of recent German history, but timing seems to indicate that austerity was a more important factor in destroying German democratic institutions.

an early proponent of universal pensions

Sunday, February 5th, 2012

Tom Paine in 1795 called for the creation of a pension for everyone from age 50, financed from an estate tax. The proposed pension, he wrote, was “not charity but a right, not bounty but justice”.

[Government must] create [from the proceeds of a 10% inheritance tax] a national fund, out of which there shall be paid to every person, when arrived at the age of twenty-one years, the sum of fifteen pounds sterling, as a compensation in part, for the loss of his or her natural inheritance, by the introduction of the system of landed property.

And also, the sum of ten pounds per annum, during life, to every person now living, of the age of fifty years, and to all others as they shall arrive at that age. ….

It is not charity but a right, not bounty but justice, that I am pleading for. ….

I care not how affluent some may be, provided that none be miserable in consequence of it. But it is impossible to enjoy affluence with the felicity it is capable of being enjoyed, while so much misery is mingled in the scene. ….

I do not suppose that more than one family in ten, in any of the countries of Europe, has, when the head of the family dies, a clear property of five hundred pounds sterling. To all such the plan is advantageous. That property would pay fifty pounds into the fund, and if there were only two children under age they would receive fifteen pounds each (thirty pounds), on coming of age, and be entitled to ten pounds a year after fifty.

It is from the overgrown acquisition of property that the fund will support itself; and I know that the possessors of such property in England, though they would eventually be benefitted by the protection of nine-tenths of it, will exclaim against the plan. But without entering any inquiry how they came by that property, let them recollect that they have been the advocates of this war, and that Mr. Pitt has already laid on more new taxes to be raised annually upon the people of England, and that for supporting the despotism of Austria and the Bourbons against the liberties of France, than would pay annually all the sums proposed in this plan.

Thomas Paine, Agrarian Justice (1795).

Tom Paine (1757-1809) is best known as author of the revolutionary pamphlet Common Sense (1776), in which he called for independence of British colonies in North America.

From the Thought du Jour archive, 17 August 2007.

the Inquisition

Friday, January 27th, 2012

The Vatican’s Inquisition records are kept mainly in a palazzo that is now the headquarters of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith. For four and a half centuries they were closed to the public. Suddenly, in 1998 the Vatican opened the archive to outside scholars like Vanity Fair editor Cullen Murphy. In this essay, he explains what he has learned, and how the mindset of the Inquisition is with us today.

Looking at the Inquisition, one sees the West crossing a threshold from one kind of world into another. Persecution acquired a modern platform – the advantages afforded by a growing web of standardised law, communications, administrative supervision and controlled mechanisms of force. It was run not merely by warriors but by an educated elite; not merely by thugs but by skilled professionals. Every subsequent outbreak of persecution, political or religious, has been abetted by these same forces. They ensure that the basic trajectory of repression will always look remarkably the same. They suggest why persecution is so difficult to stop. And they help explain why the Inquisition template has translated so easily from the religious sphere into the world of secular governments and secular ideologies. Through the lens of the Inquisition we can glimpse the world we inhabit now.

When the Inquisition’s palazzo was built, in the mid-16th century, the Pope ordered words to be carved in a marble scroll over the front door – a kind of mission statement – establishing the building as a “bulwark against heretical depravity”. The words are gone now, removed by French troops during Napoleon’s occupation. It’s easy enough to remove some words – harder to erase a legacy.

Cullen Murphy, “Inside the heresy files“, New Humanist 127:1 (January/February 2012).

HT: The Browser

Cullen Murphy’s book God’s Jury: The Inquisition and the Making of the Modern World (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2012; Allen Lane, 2012) was published in New York and London.

Hayek and Keynes

Thursday, December 22nd, 2011

If you are thinking of giving an economist-nerd friend a book for Christmas, you might be attracted to a new publication that ranks #38 on Amazon.com’s “best sellers” list of economics books, with an average customer review of 4 stars. Popularity, however, is not everything. After reading the reviews, it becomes clear that Keynes Hayek: The Clash that Defined Modern Economics (Norton, 2011), by Nicholas Wapshott, would probably not be a good choice for a nerdy economist friend.

Economist Herbert Gintis wrote a scathing review of the book at Amazon.com (see the link above), and gives it three stars only because of its entertainment value.

The problem with the book is that the two figures [Keynes and Hayek] really did not much interact, either in words or in real life, and each was preoccupied with a major battle that did not involve the other. Keynes’ polemic was against the received wisdom in British and American economics, which held that economic downturns are self-correcting, provided the monetary authority maintained the value of the currency and did not run exorbitant deficits. Of course the Austrian school believed this too, but this school was practically unknown in Anglo-American circles. Hayek was concerned with business cycle theory, but his contributions were exceeding arcane and unpersuasive. Rather, Hayek was the dedicated enemy of central planning of the state socialist variety. ….

I think the world of both Keynes and Hayek, the former as a wise practitioner whose economic theory is completely ridiculous (it took Hicks, Samuelson, and other serious economists to “make sense” of Keynes’ impenetrable prose—”make sense” not by clarification of Keynes’ ideas, but rather by offering an alternative analytical framework in which underemployment equilibrium is possible), and the latter as brilliant intellectual who was almost destroyed (despite his Nobel prize) by his adherence to the bizarre and irrelevant doctrines of the Austrian school, whose economic theory was dogmatically dictated by its paranoid fear of state intervention.

Read this for fun, dear reader, the same way you read People magazine. Don’t think you will get some deep insights in the the nature of modern political economy. You won’t.

Herbert Gintis (born 1940), now Professor Emeritus at the University of Massachusetts, in 1968 co-founded the Union for Radical Political Economics. He also co-authored, with Samuel Bowles, Schooling in Capitalist America: Educational Reform and the Contradictions of Economic Life (Basic Books, 1976), which at the time had a large influence on me.

At the other end of the political spectrum, Greg Ransom titles his Amazon review “This is a fantasy not history, constructed via cut & paste”, and gives the book two stars (from a maximum of five – no star at all is not an option).

I’ll give the book two stars rather than one, in part for this — Wapshott digs out quotations of British newspapers which haven’t been republished before, and he digs out a few original quotations from British archive materials which are new to the book literature.

Ransom blogs at Taking Hayek Seriously and is an expert on Hayek.

DeLong defends Stiglitz

Saturday, December 17th, 2011

Berkeley economist Brad DeLong defends Joseph Stiglitz  – but only his coherence, not his relevance – writing that Stiglitz, in the Vanity Fair essay, must be assuming that consumers who benefit from lower prices have a low propensity to spend compared to the stressed producers:

Rapid technological progress in a very large economic sector (agriculture then, manufacturing now) leads to oversupply and steep declines in the sector’s prices. Poorer producers have less income. They come under pressure to cut back their spending. Others–consumers–are now richer because they are paying less for their food (or their manufactures), but their propensity to spend is lower than that of the stressed farmers or ex-manufacturing workers.

Brad DeLong, “I Don’t Fully Buy Stiglitz’s Argument That Our Macro Problems Have Deep Structural Roots. But I Do See Its Coherence“, Brad.DeLong, 16 December 2011.

Nick Rowe, commenting on DeLong’s post (December 16, 2011 at 03:17 PM), asks:

Where does Stiglitz say that? Suppose his argument is that: (1930) farmers had a higher marginal propensity to spend than manufacturers; (2008) manufacturers had a higher marginal propensity to spend than people in the service sector. Wouldn’t he have made that assumption explicit, and spent some time defending that assumption? In my reading, he totally ignored the increase in real income of those in the sector with rising terms of trade. He jumped straight from a decline in farm incomes into multiplier analysis.

A reader (“jeff”) responds (at 04:32 PM):

Nick, on your thread someone pointed out that in another paper published this year he wrote a sketch of this argument where he says that “But more generally, distribution matters: if prices of agricultural goods fall rapidly, farmers reduce their spending by more than urban workers and rentiers increase their spending. Aggregate demand thus falls. More generally, with both supply and demand concave functions of firm equity, there are real, and potentially large, consequences to such redistributions.” It is easier to believe that this was left out(or mistakenly cut out) of this vf article than that he was unaware of this.

Nick’s response (at 05:47 PM) was:

Hmmm. OK. Fair point. But, well, it is absolutely central to his argument though, if that’s what his argument is. It’s a really big editing glitch. It’s a bit like forgetting to mention you are assuming MV is constant, when arguing that fiscal policy can’t work. ;-)

Update: Scott Sumner has much more here. Oh dear! This does not look good for Joe Stiglitz!

reaction to Joseph Stiglitz’s views on how to avert a depression

Friday, December 16th, 2011

Columbia University economist Joseph Stiglitz:

Forget monetary policy. Re-examining the cause of the Great Depression—the revolution in agriculture that threw millions out of work—the author argues that the U.S. is now facing and must manage a similar shift in the “real” economy, from industry to service, or risk a tragic replay of 80 years ago.

Joseph E. Stiglitz , “The Book of Jobs“, Vanity Fair, January 2012.

Carleton University economist Nick Rowe’s reaction:

Joseph Stiglitz is a great economist. A great microeconomist. But this  is really bad macroeconomics. God it’s depressing.

[O]ne thing that has become clear to me over the past few years is that very smart economists can sometimes say very foolish things, even about topics in which they’re supposed to have expertise. This would appear to be one of those cases.

Nick Rowe, “The gizmo theory of the recession“, Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, 13 December 2011.

Bentley University economist Scott Sumner is also puzzled by Stiglitz’s macroeconomic model:

Stiglitz is a distinguished Nobel Prize winner.  But he didn’t win for business cycle theory.  I doubt even his fellow progressive Paul Krugman could make heads or tails out of Stiglitz’s essay.  ….

Back in the 1930s many people thought the Great Depression was caused by too much output.  This led FDR to adopt programs aimed at reducing output (such as the AAA and the NIRA.)  They “worked.”  Today economists tend to scoff at such ideas, as falling output is essentially the definition of a depression.  But not Stiglitz.

Scott Sumner, “No Mr. Stiglitz, Ben Bernanke does not agree with you“,  The Money Illusion, 13 December 2011.

universal pensions in Seychelles

Monday, December 12th, 2011

Few countries in the world today provide pensions solely on the basis of age and residence, regardless of employment, wealth or income. So far I had been able to put together a list of only 12 countries with universal pensions. It was thus with great excitement that I noted, in a Country Fact Sheet at the Pension Watch site of HelpAge, that Seychelles, a small territory in the Indian Ocean, provides a pension of 2200 rupees ($181 US$) a month to everyone from the age of 63.

Consulting various publications and online material, I discovered that Seychelles indeed has a universal age pension, and that it dates from 1979. The only requirement, in addition to age, is  five years continuous residence immediately prior to commencement of benefits. The monthly benefit was SR2200 in 2009. Applying the average exchange rate for that year, this is equivalent to approximately US$162. This was a reasonable pension, equal to 82% of the country’s (gross) minimum wage, and to 23% of its Gross National Income (GNI). A total of 7255 age pensioners – 8.3% of the population of Seychelles – received benefits that absorbed 1.66% of the country’s GDP (1.88% of its GNI).

The age benefit this year (2011) is SR2400 (US$196) a month, equal to 70% of the gross minimum wage. This seems to suggest a substantial decrease in generosity, but this is not the case. Appearances are deceiving because of major changes in taxation. Prior to July 2010 there was no income taxation in Seychelles. Pensions and other social security benefits were financed by a payroll tax of 22.5%, all but 2.5% of which was paid by employers. In 2009, the gross minimum wage was SR15.50 per hour, and the net minimum wage was only 2.5% less. Beginning in July 2010 the payroll tax was replaced with a flat 15% tax on all income, including wages. The difference between net and gross wages thus rose from 2.5% to 15%. The 2011 pension, unlike wages, is not taxable as income, so is equal to 82.4% of the net minimum wage, nearly as generous as it was in 2009.

Now for some history. Seychelles, like Mauritius, was uninhabited until settled by French planters accompanied by slaves, but the export crops differed: coconuts in Seychelles and sugar cane in Mauritius. The British later took possession of both colonies. Seychelles, in fact, was governed from Mauritius, as a ‘colony of a colony’ until 1903, when it became a separate crown colony. Seychelles, like Mauritius, has universal pensions (without means tests) for young widows and orphans as well as the aged, so I had expected to find influence of Mauritius on social policies in Seychelles. I could find none, however. For whatever reason, the two colonies went their separate ways.

A recent study published by the Commonwealth Secretariat, with help from UNRISID, covers the economic history of Seychelles quite thoroughly. I quote brief passages from the full report, which can be freely downloaded. A key point is that Britain paid little attention to Seychelles, so landowners, despite abolition of slavery, were able to keep social spending (and taxes) to a minimum.

Some colonial governors had important impacts on development policy (although many did not). Most prominent of these, due to his implementation of relatively progressive reforms, was Dr Percy Selwyn Selwyn-Clarke – known as the ‘socialist governor’. In reality, he was not a socialist and not even a member of the (then) ruling British Labour party which had appointed him in 1947, but he was renowned for his ‘social conscience’ and had been placed in Seychelles because this was seen by the British government as an important attribute in response to the reactionary domestic economic elite. … [T]his included a far greater emphasis on the collection of taxes from the landowning class. Selwyn-Clarke also promoted basic healthcare for plantation workers, improved housing for labourers on government estates, introduced a minimum wage and reformed old French legislation that made married women ‘completely subservient to their husbands’. …. Unsurprisingly, he was opposed at every step by the Seychelles Taxpayers and Landowners Association and his successor as governor immediately rolled back several of his progressive reforms in favour of their minority class interests.

[...]

Before independence in 1976, formal and institutionalised social protection was patchy ….  There were no pensions or social security for the elderly, except for public servants and employees of certain firms.

Accompanying the gradual shift in colonial policy to the institutionalisation of universal suffrage from 1948 (for property owners) to 1967 (for all citizens) was increased domestic political pressure for the creation of forms of social protection by the colonial state. ….

The National Provident Fund (NPF) was established in this context in 1971. The NPF was a compulsory social security savings plan aimed at working Seychellois. …. The scheme only benefited those in formal employment and those employees who contributed. Contributing employees were paid the full amount of the benefit they had contributed as a lump sum payment ….

Benefits were limited to the credit that the individual had contributed plus interest, the growth of which was often too small to keep up with … [inflation]. ….

While the stated justifications for the [1977 Marxist coup] … were mixed, one of the accusations against the previous government was the lack of progress in social development. The new government initially kept the NPF as the main social protection programme until the Social Security Fund was created by decree in 1979.

The core rationale behind the SSF was the one party state’s ambition to ensure that everybody in Seychelles benefited from development, rather than just the few. This universal insurance mechanism thus clearly fitted the stated socialist ideals of the new government. The SSF would collect contributions from workers and employees and use the revenue to assist those who were not in employment. In this way, the problems associated with the limited coverage and qualifying conditions of the NPF would be solved, as the new fund would include the whole population. ….

The return of multi-party democracy to Seychelles in 1993 only served to expand the scale and scope of social protection programmes. …. The right to social protection and the state’s responsibility to ‘undertake and maintain a system of social security’ was enshrined in the 1993 constitution as an unalienable right ….

Liam Campling, Hansel Confiance and Marie-Therese Purvis, Social Policies in Seychelles (Commonwealth Secretariat, London, 2011), pp. 11, 75-80.

The National Provident Fund (NPF) continues with a different name. It is now called the Seychelles Pension Fund (SPF). Benefits to SPF contributors are paid out in addition to the flat social security pension. The universal pension supplements, but does not replace, mandated retirement savings.

dessert

Saturday, December 3rd, 2011

Although science has established that our love of sweet things is rooted in evolution, [Michael] Krondl posits that “dessert is a purely cultural phenomenon.” Thus the Sacher torte, “an edible manifestation of an urban, cosmopolitan Vienna, as smooth and fitted as a little black cocktail dress,” embodies Austria’s tradition of skilled artisanal pastry cooks. Contrast this with America’s “rural and profoundly unaristocratic” apple pie, an expression of our nation’s “almost religious attitude about home baking.”  ….

“The French noun dessert,” Krondl explains, “originates with the verb desservir, or un-serve, that is, to remove what has been served. In other words, le dessert was set out once the table had been cleared of the dishes that made up the main part of the meal.” Although the term appears a couple of times in the late 14th century, it would not attain its current meaning until roughly 1900.

Dawn Drzal, “How We Got to Dessert“, New York Times Sunday Book Review, 4 December 2011.

Ms Drzal is reviewing Sweet Invention: A History of Dessert (Chicago Review Press, 2011), by food historian and former chef Michael Krondl. His blog, excerpts from the book, recipes and a “global dessert dictionary” are here.

means-testing old-age pensions in 1937

Monday, November 21st, 2011

I discovered some interesting information on old-age pensions at the time of their introduction in Norway. Two things surprised me. First, an important motivation apparently was to “increase the number of children in the families”. By providing cash benefits for the elderly, the state made it possible for adult children to divert expenditure from aged parents to their own young children. Second, an unwritten promise was that anyone, regardless of means, could obtain at least a portion of the supposedly means-tested benefit. If means-tests were not strictly applied, part of the benefit was effectively universal. In support of this conjecture, I would like to see statistics on the proportion of age-eligible Norwegians in receipt of partial (or full) age pensions in those years.

[In Norway during the decades of 1880-1920] there was mutual responsibility of support between grown children and parents, according to the poor relief legislation. This principle was weakened by the introduction of the old age pension in 1923 (which was not passed until 1937, with minor changes). An important motivation behind the act was the wish to increase the number of children in the families. Those with an occupation should use their income on their children rather than on their elderly parents. In order to stimulate such a development, the children’s income, from 1937, was no longer a factor in the appraisal of whether the over-seventies were entitled to their pensions or not. This was a breach of what had been viewed as the natural bonds of familial solidarity. It was a marked distinction from the poor relief system and put heavier emphasis on the nuclear family’s importance in society. In other areas as well, means testing was less severe than in the poor relief system, and the appraisals of need were not as haphazard.

Retirement pension also represented a shift from the Norwegian insurance system. For the first time previous wage labour was not a requirement for receiving benefit. Thus eligibility became largely divorced from work performance or other market participation. Entitlements were made independent of individual contributions since the financial responsibility was shifted onto public revenues. The principle of rightful means testing is adopted. Everyone had a right to receive benefit if certain economic conditions were met. An expressed premise was that the aged would receive a certain sum without any means test, to encourage them to find some income in addition.

Compared to that of other Scandinavian countries, the Norwegian retirement pension system was based more on the recipients’ rights than on testing their means of income. In principle, all old people were guaranteed a standard minimum amount with no conditions of previous wage labour or premium payment attached to it. However, two groups were excluded: those who had lived abroad and those who had been convicted of vagrancy, begging, drunkenness, and so forth.

Øyvind BjØrnson, “The Social Democrats and the Norwegian Welfare State: Some Perspectives“, Scandinavian Journal of History, 26:3 (2001), pp. 197-223.

To restrain costs, the Norwegian government initially set the age of eligibility at 70 years. The old-age pension became universal (without a means test) in 1959. Income tests were reinstated in 1969, and later reduced to tests of other pension income. Norway today, like Sweden, provides a Universal Minimum Pension to everyone who meets age and residence requirements. The age of eligibility was reduced (from 70 to 67 years) in 1973.

Hitler and Darwin

Sunday, November 20th, 2011

Astrophysicist Coel Hellier debunks the absurd, but common, accusation that Darwinian thinking inspired the Nazi holocaust.

[W]hile Nazi racial doctrine and Mein Kampf share one feature with Darwinism, namely competition and selection, the Nazi doctrine is not derived from Darwinism and is fundamentally incompatible with it. Whereas Darwinism says that all humans have a common origin, that species and races are malleable, evolving over time, and that one could (as with all animals, and if one so wished) artificially control breeding to enhance and select desired characteristics, Nazi doctrine says that human races are distinct and primordial, created separately by the Will of God, who desires that they remain separate, that the moral imperative is to preserve the races in their current state by preventing any racial intermixing, which would be both harmful and sinful.

Above all, while any similarity with Darwinism is only in one mechanism, namely competition and selection, the Nazi motivation for keeping the races separate is profoundly anti-Darwinian and instead religious and creationist. ….

Thus to the Nazis Darwinism was something they largely rejected and opposed. As with many Christians they opposed Darwinism because it saw man as an evolved ape, whereas they saw man as God’s special creation, and they opposed Darwinism because it was materialist, stripping mankind of the spiritual dimension, and because it did not give man a moralistic destiny.

That is why, in a list of books they banned from Third Reich libraries, the Nazis listed:

“Writings of a philosophical and social nature whose content deals with the false scientific enlightenment of primitive Darwinism and Monism (Haeckel).”

“Monism” is the idea that mankind is solely material, with no spiritual soul. Haeckel, as well as having been the foremost Darwinist in Germany, had founded the Monist League in 1905 (it was disbanded in 1933 when the Nazis gained power). The word “primitive” here is a pejorative epithet to denigrate Darwinism.

Coel Hellier, “Nazi racial ideology was religious, creationist and opposed to Darwinism“, coelsblog, 8 November 2011.

The essay is illustrated and carefully researched, with numerous quotes and links to historical documents.

Coel Hellier is professor of astrophysics at Keele University in England and author of Cataclysmic Variable Stars: How and why they vary (Springer-Verlag UK, 2001).

HT: The Browser.